The Kent State shooting on May 4, 1970 seemed to be the epic national tragedy as I was growing up. Maybe because I’m from that part of the country. Post 9/11, Kansas City bombing, and other acts of violence, this catastrophe seems to be fading in memory and importance. In 67 Shots: Kent State and the End of American Innocence, author Howard Means examines then events immediately before, during and after the altercation to try to understand where things escalated to the point where National Guardsmen opened fire on the college campus, killing four people and injuring others. Means fabricates a meticulous timeline while describing the failures of local police and campus administration to prevent the escalation of protest to riots to deathly intervention by National Guard.
Monday, February 27, 2017
Anti semitism in America since Trump was elected Present ... now epidemic
The epidemic of bomb threats against Jewish organizations, explained
Rosenbloom Monument Co. workers from left, Nathan Fohne, Derek Doolin and Philip Weiss hoist a headstone at the Chesed Shel Emeth Cemetery in University City, Mo., where over 150 headstones were tipped over. No arrests have been made. The cemetery is getting a show of support from cleanup volunteers, well-wishers and financial contributors from across many faiths. AP Photo/Jim Salter
In the first weeks of 2017, 69 bomb threats were called in to Jewish community centers across the country, sending preschool kids scurrying to safety, again and again, beyond the walls of their daytime homes. Over this past weekend, a historic cemetery outside St. Louis, Missouri, was vandalized, with nearly 200 tombstones overturned. On Wednesday morning, the New York offices of the Anti-Defamation League (ADL) received a bomb threat, while hours later a Jewish day school in North Carolina was evacuated after receiving a similar threat.
And for weeks, that surge of anti-Semitic incidents was ignored by President Donald Trump, who repeatedly brushed aside questions about the proposed violence (and had previously released a statement on Holocaust Remembrance Day that didn’t mention Jews). Trump made his first targeted comments about the threats on Tuesday, calling them “horrible and painful,” but his words weren’t enough to counter the growing sense in the Jewish community that their vulnerability is, at best, unimportant to the president. Steven Goldstein, executive director of the Anne Frank Center, tweeted angrily that the belated remarks were a mere “Band-aid on the cancer of anti-Semitism that has infected [Trump’s] own administration.”
(It was his Vice President, Mike Pence who won accolades by a surprise visit to the vandalized cemetery on Wednesday, where he spoke and rolled up his sleeves to join the clean-up efforts.)
But it isn’t just concern about Trump that is filling the Facebook feeds of America’s Jewish community. It is the genuine fear that the country has entered into a new era where anti-Semitism has left the shadows and taken a louder, bolder place on the center stage of American society.
That fear shouldn’t come as much of a surprise. As my colleague Yochi Dreazen wrote back in October, candidate Trump “revived some of the ugliest of anti-Semitic stereotypes” in speeches and advertisements that recalled canards over Jews controlling the levers of power and money in American society.
It’s important to note two caveats. First, this year’s anti-Semitic threats have thankfully not resulted in any actual violence; the last deadly attack on a Jewish target took place in 2014 when a white supremacist gunman killed three people at a pair of Jewish institutions in Kansas. Second, it’s not clear that overall anti-Semitism is actually on the rise. The ADL found last fall that 14 percent of Americans, or 34 million people, harbored anti-Semitic attitudes, a number largely unchanged from prior years.
Still, one threat against a JCC would be unsettling, but 69 of them, in just a few weeks, is an epidemic that is both unprecedented and terribly unnerving.
The spike in anti-Semitic vandalism and threats comes amid a global trend of racist, xenophobic, and Islamophobic rhetoric, and amid the rise of populist political leaders who espouse such thinking. From Brexit to the election of Donald Trump to the polls showing Front National leader Marine Le Pen leading the pack in the upcoming French election, there is a new permissiveness displayed toward populist speech that highlights nationalism over globalization while shunning immigration and outsiders, especially Muslims and other non-Christians.
Racism for some, points out Ryan Lenz of the Southern Poverty Law Center, no longer carries shame.
“It feels like hate has gone mainstream, and so it is a time of real fear,” says Rabbi Joshua Stanton, a congregational rabbi in the New York metro area. Stanton notes it feels like anti-Semitism is somehow suddenly “more socially acceptable than it has been in a generation or two. For a growing number of sub-groups, it is seen as acceptable and even a marker of belonging.”
Don’t blame Trump for anti-Semitism. Don’t give him a pass, either.
In the early aughts, groups like the ADL saw a notable uptick in anti-Semitism on university campuses across the country. Most of that was connected to the politics of the Middle East, like Israel’s 2014 war in the Gaza Strip.
The major difference now is that the current spike in anti-Semitic violence appears to come from our own political environment, not from any events overseas.
It’s impossible, and unfair, to pin all of it on Donald Trump, but he has contributed to the problem. In December 2015, he bragged to the Republican Jewish Coalition that he didn’t “want their money” and so they weren’t going to support him anyway. It was widely believed his implication was Jews normally think they can buy a candidate with their vast wealth.
In July 2016, Trump tweeted out an image of Hillary Clinton alongside a six-pointed star emblazoned with the words “most corrupt candidate ever,” atop a pile of money. The six-pointed star is known as the Star of David and has for millennia been a sign of the Jewish people. The tweet was widely seen as a blending of anti-Jewish sentiment, equating Jews with money and corruption. The campaign denied the charge, though the tweet was deleted and replaced with a circle where the star had been. PolitiFact later showed the image had come from a message board used by members of the racist, misogynistic, and anti-Semitic alt-right.
At the same time, anti-Semitic online trolling of journalists reached levels never before seen. White supremacists, angered by negative coverage of Trump’s campaign, began photoshopping images of journalists into concentration camp uniforms and into cartoons that smacked of 1930s-era anti-Semitic imagery. While the messages didn’t come from the campaign, many of those targeting journalists self-identified as supporters of the Republican candidate.
Then in the home stretch of the campaign, the final advertisement of the Trump camp used anti-Semitic dog whistles about money, power, and “global special interests,” and flashed pictures of financier George Soros, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, and Goldman Sachs Chair and CEO Lloyd Blankfein — all of whom are Jewish.
That populist environment seems to have had an impact on a rise in reported hate crimes, generally, in the immediate aftermath of the campaign.
In the first month after the election, the Southern Poverty Law Center collected 1,094 reports of what it calls “bias-related incidents” against immigrants, Muslims, Jews, women, and LGBTQ individuals. It’s an eye-opening number, but one that may be enormously underreported because, as with all hate crime statistics, the incidents were largely self-reported by groups that may not feel comfortable talking to law enforcement.
What gives experts pause isn’t just the number of such incidents. It’s how easily anti-Semitic, anti-immigrant, anti-Muslim, and other forms of hatred can be spread over Facebook, Twitter, and other social media platforms.
Social media is giving anti-Semites louder microphones
The exploitation of modern technological platforms to spread anti-Semitism is “unprecedented,” according to the ADL’s Oren Segal. Also unprecedented, he said, is the sense among “white supremacists, in particular, that they have a champion in the highest office.”
On the ADL’s blog, a rundown of neo-Nazi responses to last Thursday’s White House press conference supports that thought. At that press event, Jake Turx, a visibly religious Jewish reporter from the ultra-Orthodox Jewish magazine Ami, asked Trump about anti-Semitism. The president brusquely cut him off. “Not a simple question. Not a fair question,” Trump said as Turx tried to ask about the increase in bomb threats. He told Turx to sit down. “I understand the rest of your question. ... So here's the story, folks. Number one: I am the least anti-Semitic person that you've ever seen in your entire life.”
“Sit down Jew boy! The goyim have had enough,” read one tweet celebrating the moment.
Jonathan Greenblatt, the CEO of the ADL, said it’s become socially unacceptable to publicly express anti-Semitism — but it’s a vastly different story online.
“Fifty years ago [anti-Semites] had to share notes and fliers,” he told me. “Today they are burning up Twitter.”
Trump is in denial about the dangers of white supremacists and neo-Nazis
In early February, Reuters reported that the Trump White House was considering changing the name of a government program currently known as Countering Violent Extremism, or CVE, to “Countering Islamic Extremism" or "Countering Radical Islamic Extremism."
That would mean abandoning, at least formally, any focus on white supremacist violence or right-wing extremism. And that would be a dangerous mistake given that between 2001 and 2015, more Americans were killed by homegrown right-wing extremists than by Islamist terrorists.
As my colleague Jennifer Williams has written, “adopting extremist views and committing horrendous acts of violence in the name of some ‘righteous’ cause, be it religion or politics or just plain old hatred, isn't something that only Muslims do.”
Turning the focus away from white supremacist or racist violence becomes, in and of itself, a means of emboldening those very groups. They are the groups that have been most likely to go after Jewish organizations and communities. In Whitefish, Montana, for example, an entire community was targeted and its rabbi harassed, and a neo-Nazi march was planned (though later scuttled).
“We can't forget that these groups are listening, and watching,” says Segal. “White supremacists should never feel they are in a safe space.”
He notes that a week ago, a self-styled white supremacist was arrested in South Carolina for allegedly threatening a “Dylann Roof–style” attack on Jews, a reference to the 2015 murder of nine parishioners at a historically black church in Charleston.
Not monitoring white supremacists, Segal says, also creates a feeling among Jewish Americans that their concerns are not being taken seriously.
Moments of solidarity amid the hate and fear
There has been heartening bridge building across persecuted groups, from hands extended between individual rabbis and imams to larger, more public acts of coalition building, including a call by the Council on American Islamic Relations (CAIR) Monday offering a $5,000 reward for information exposing the perpetrators of the JCC threats.
Late on Tuesday, Muslim activists Linda Sarsour and Tarek El-Messidi launched a crowdfunding site to repair the desecrated graves in Missouri.
“Through this campaign, we hope to send a united message from the Jewish and Muslim communities that there is no place for this type of hate, desecration, and violence in America,” the funding page said. “We pray that this restores a sense of security and peace to the Jewish-American community who has undoubtedly been shaken by this event.”
The stated fundraising goal was $20,000. It was met within three hours of the site going online.
As of Wednesday afternoon, the site had raised nearly $85,000.
Later that same day, another Jewish institution — this time a day school in Durham, North Carolina — was evacuated after a bomb threat.
As Wednesday came to a close, 150 Congress members, joined by the JCC Association of North America, delivered a letter to Homeland Security Secretary John Kelly, Attorney General Jeff Sessions, and FBI Director James Comey. It read, in part:
We urge the Department of Homeland Security and the Department of Justice to swiftly assess the situation and to advise Congress on what specific steps are being taken, or will be taken, to deter such threats from being made, to identify and prosecute the perpetrators for violations of federal criminal laws, and to enable JCCs to enhance security measures such as physical barriers and guards, in the event that an individual seeks to act upon these threats.
Sunday, February 26, 2017
67 Shots: Kent State and the End of American Innocence by Howard Means Released April 12th 2016 Format: Hardcover Pages: 288 ISBN: 9780306823794 Published by Da Capo Press
“A generation of rising prosperity, a growing middle class, TV the recently launched Sesame Street, Dr. Spock and Dr. Seuss, greatly enhanced access to higher education had netted this: free love; protest marches; contempt for flag, county, and president; sons and daughters, boyfriends and girlfriends who knew more collectively than any generation ever had and who were, in practical ways of the world, dumb as dirt.”
67 Shots reads more like a research paper rather than tabloid sensationalism, which is a possibility given the volatility of the subject. Means relays the events dispassionately which can be a little dry at times. The author also includes plenty of first-hand accounts, apparently from oral history archives of Kent State University. These accounts create a fraction of a feeling of tension the people on campus and in nearby neighborhoods must have endured. While Howard does a lot of finger-pointing, he does make clear the fact those in command of the National Guard refused to hold themselves accountable for the situation. This is still an interesting book that brings this travesty back into center of attention, at least for a moment.
Saturday, February 25, 2017
Equality of the Sexes in the IDF ..... 350% increase
IDF sources reported a 350% increase in the number of female warfighters serving in the IDF Ground Arm between 2015 and 2016, an improvement in motivation to opt for combat positions among female recruits from the religious sector, and an increase in the recruitment of religious female warfighters into the Combat Intelligence Collection Corps – at present the "Eilat" company is a "gender specific" company and soon the entire "Eitam" battalion will become a "gender specific" battalion enabling religious female warfighters to join its ranks.
As part of the establishment of the new border protection layout, which integrates the border protection mission and commands the various setups, the border protection training school will be established in November, where the personnel of this layout will be trained (surveillance operators, combat intelligence collection operators, trackers, operations center NCOs and light infantry border battalions). The establishment of the new border protection layout provides a glimpse into the data and service characteristics of IDF female warfighters. Last week, the IDF Ground Arm presented, in a briefing to the press held at the Quirya compound, the border protection layout currently being established. The new layout includes the four mixed light infantry battalions (Caracal, Arayot HaYarden, Bardelas and the new 47th battalion), the combat intelligence collection forces, the civilian settlement protection forces, the command centers of the regional brigades and divisions and other elements.
This new layout is being established pursuant to a staff work effort that lasted about eighteen months, during which the IDF attempted to make the necessary adaptations and improvements required in order to enable female warfighters to serve in the ground forces (today, some 1,300 female warfighters serve in ground units), with the emphasis on the female warfighters in the mixed battalions and the combat intelligence collection battalions, which are intended to constitute the core of the new layout. This staff work effort produced various data, trends and conclusions regarding the typical female warfighter of the IDF ground forces.
For example, a comparison between a company of new female recruits in basic infantry training course and a mixed warfighter company indicated that in the mixed company, the number of 'sick bay' calls and visits to the medical staff was four times higher. It was further indicated that female warfighters are 5 cm shorter, on average, than male warfighters, in addition to other physiological changes that would require adaptations of the nutrition of female warfighters as early as during the training stage at the new training base for mixed light infantry battalions. The new base is a part of the Sayarim Combat Intelligence Collection School in the Arava region, and is to be opened between August and November (today, the training companies of these battalions are scattered among the brigade training centers of the Golani, Givati and Nahal infantry brigades).
Another adaptation currently under development for the benefit of the female warfighters is a lighter and more comfortable helmet and a combat vest designed specifically to fit the female body. Additionally, a decision was made to discontinue the use of heavy machine guns and MAG machine guns in the configurations carried by the male and female warfighters. These machine guns will only be mounted on the routine security vehicles. The male and female warfighters will continue to carry the Negev machine guns regarded as lighter and more comfortable. The light infantry battalions will adopt the shortened version of the M-16 assault rifle, which is, admittedly longer but lighter than the Micro-Tavor rifle used thus far by the warfighters of the Caracal battalion.
Fighting the Dropout Issue
IDF sources admitted that a substantial dropout was recorded about two years ago and about a year ago in two major elements of the new border protection layout: the new light infantry battalions and the female surveillance operator force.
9% of female surveillance operators in active service plus 12.5% of the operators undergoing training dropped out of this demanding job in 2015, but last year the dropout figure decreased to 8% during active service and 5.7% during training. The female surveillance operator layout has grown by 1500% in the last decade. Pursuant to the reconstruction of the operations center infrastructures and the revised leave arrangements, dropout figures decreased by 15% between 2015 and 2016. According to IDF sources, dropout has stopped and decreased in the light infantry battalions as well. "The staff was not suitable for these companies. They had squad leaders and platoon commanders that had hailed from such other brigades as the Golani Brigade and did not know how to deal with the special characteristics of a mixed company," a senior Ground Arm officer explained. "Today, almost all of the commanders in these companies had previously served in the mixed battalions. Contrary to the American concept according to which the same selection processes are applied to both male and female warfighters, we decided to make adaptations so as to have many more female warfighters relative to the US Army."
Another officer described the extent to which negative media reports regarding the service conditions affect motivation as early as during the recruitment stage: "A few weeks ago, 35 female recruits at the BAKUM (IDF central recruitment & selection depot) refused to be transported to the surveillance operator course pursuant to negative media reports, despite the increase we had experienced following Operation Protective Edge." Another element with which the IDF is trying to cope with the fluctuations in motivation is the new unique beret designed for the entire personnel of the new layout by one of the female warfighters – a yellow and brown camouflage pattern.
All of the above notwithstanding, in the coming years, the new layout is not expected to be involved in the primary activities of the world of routine security that keep the IDF busy in the various border sectors. These activities are assigned to the battalions of the regular brigades – the same battalions expected to execute the ground maneuvers in enemy territory during wartime. These battalions, the very core of the combat force of the regular military, will continue to be trained for routine security operations by the IDF regional commands. "Our vision is to establish a training base through which all of the IDF battalions assigned to operational routine security activities will go," explained the Ground Arm officer. "For the time being, the new layout includes the drivers, the operations center officers and female NCOs for the various sectors, the routine security coordinators and the trackers. The objective is to assign all four light infantry battalions to operational security activities in the Judea and Samaria district by 2018 – just like the mixed battalions of the IDF Home Front Command. Today, these four battalions also have operational plans for fighting in enemy territory near the border. We look at the border threat while planning a few steps ahead. Accordingly, for example, the issue of multicopters is already on our doorstep, as a surveillance asset or as a strike asset, operated by Hamas as well as by Hezbollah, and we are preparing to face this threat, among others."
Thursday, February 23, 2017
New Iron Dome Interceptor tested successfully
Tamir interceptor, whose components are produced in a joint Israeli-American venture, is tested as part of the anti-rocket system's ongoing upgrade, Defense Ministry says • "This significantly enhances Israel's air defenses," official says.
Lilach Shoval
The Iron Dome defense system in action [Illustrative]
| Photo credit: AP
A new interceptor developed for the Iron Dome defense system has been successfully tested recently, the Defense Ministry said Wednesday. The routine tests is part of the anti-rocket system's ongoing developments and upgrade, the ministry said.
The tests were held by the Defense Ministry's Homa Directorate, which oversees the development of missile defenses, and Rafael Advanced Defense Systems, which develops the interceptor, named Tamir.
The Tamir interceptor includes components developed as part of a joint Israeli-American project.
The joint venture is part of a manufacturing deal signed between Israel and the U.S. in 2014. The U.S. Missile Defense Agency and American defense contractor Raytheon are involved in the development of Iron Dome's components.
Iron Dome, designed to intercept and destroy short-range rockets and artillery shells, is part of Israel's four-tiered air defenses, which also include the David's Sling system, which counters medium-to-long-range rockets and missiles, the Arrow 2 short- and medium-range ballistic missile interceptor, and the Arrow 3 long-range missile interceptor, which is in the last leg of its development.
Homa Director Moshe Patel said, "We've successfully completed a series of complex tests. ... Together with David's Sling, this significantly enhances Israel's air defenses against short- and midrange missiles."
In January, the Israeli Air Force successfully tested the David's Sling missile defense system.
The test included a series of interception scenarios during which the system's radar and command and control abilities were put into action. IAF personnel assigned to the future David's Sling Unit participated in the test as part of their training.
Friday, February 17, 2017
TOP TEN OURCROWD GLOBAL INVESTOR TRENDS
To capture the key trends brought to life on the momentous day, OurCrowd has unveiled its top tech playbook trends for global startup investors and entrepreneurs:
1. Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Go Mainstream
2. Seeing Is Believing: VR and AR Become a Critical Business Tool
3. Obey the Sound of My Voice: Voice-Driven Apps Filter Out the Noise
4. Apples and Oranges: AgTech Disrupts the World’s Oldest Industry
5. Industrial and Agricultural Drones Take Off
6. Is That a Doctor in Your Pocket? Digital Revolutionizes Healthcare
7. Here, There, Everywhere: Blockchain Applications Finally Take Hold
8. Boldly Going Where No Company Has Gone Before: SpaceTech
9. Cybersecurity for Critical Infrastructure Becomes Critical
10. Autonomous Driving Picks Up Speed
1. Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Go Mainstream
Driven by exponentially faster computing power and cloud computing, “teaching machines” is becoming easier and more scalable, enabling AI to go mainstream across a wide range of industries: including consumer marketing and retail, entertainment, digital health, and newer areas like autonomous driving and advanced robotics.
We are most excited by companies building applications which solve real world problems, applying AI in areas that can truly have an impact on the quality of our lives.
2. Seeing Is Believing: VR and AR Become a Critical Business Tool
Did you know that in operating rooms across the US, brain surgeons are already using Virtual Reality (VR) to rehearse and simulate surgery in order to be more effective? VR and Augmented Reality (AR) is not just about show business, entertainment, and 3D gaming, but also about saving lives, industrial solutions, and infrastructure.
In our view, VR and AR are about to go mainstream and will be used across a wide range of sectors from sports analytics to building airplane wings. These are definitely interesting technologies to keep an eye on!
3. Obey the Sound of My Voice: Voice-Driven Apps Filter Out the Noise
3. Obey the Sound of My Voice: Voice-Driven Apps Filter Out the Noise
Have you ever tried using Siri in a car going over 50 KPH? Or talking to Alexa with the kids making noise in the background? Good Luck! As we all know it does not work.
However, we believe the era of voice driven computing is coming. In the last 10 years, we have moved from primarily using keyboards to swiping and using touch-screens. OurCrowd believes that in the next five years we will move to talking to our devices as the primary mode of man – machine communication.
Core voice recognition software has become almost perfect at understanding the human voice and getting our words correct. The missing ingredient is its ability to enable our machines to get a clear signal and cancel background noise so that Siri really can HEAR what we are saying.
We are excited about companies finding innovative ways of making this happen.
4. Apples and Oranges: AgTech Disrupts the World’s Oldest Industry
4. Apples and Oranges: AgTech Disrupts the World’s Oldest Industry
As we all know, the world oldest industry has not been known for its technological flexibility. However, these days we witness the blooming of Agriculture-related technologies for different reasons.
Traditionally farming is a family owned business and we now see how second generation of farmers are much more techie and open to adopt advanced farming technologies. In addition, the last two years have seen mass consolidation between leading players in AgTech creating deep pockets and a big appetite for acquisitions.
5. Industrial and Agricultural Drones Take Off
5. Industrial and Agricultural Drones Take Off
Over the past couple of years, we have heard a lot (maybe too much) buzz about Amazon using drones to deliver packages to your doorstep or bring you fast food on demand.
While this is fun, we think the most interesting and profitable uses of drone technologies lie within industrial and agricultural markets.
Drones are already playing critical roles in facility security, mining, oil and gas exploration, crop protection and surveying landmass. Building industrial scale drones, which are robust and reliable is difficult and challenging, but companies that can meet that challenge are where we want to focus.
6. Is That a Doctor in Your Pocket? Digital Revolutionizes Healthcare
6. Is That a Doctor in Your Pocket? Digital Revolutionizes Healthcare
As much as we try not to overuse this term, artificial intelligence is actually a powerful factor in the rapidly growing digital health sector. Letting us crunch old data sets from electronic medical records all the way to data collected from wearables will increase our quality of life and perhaps even prevent deaths.
Similarly, computer vision and machine learning are enabling companies to extract new insights and diagnostics from images.
7. Here, There, Everywhere: Blockchain Applications Finally Take Hold
7. Here, There, Everywhere: Blockchain Applications Finally Take Hold
Timing is everything! In the buzzword competition of 2016, blockchain was the hands down winner. Since then there have been fits and starts for this important financial technology. Many VCs have been disappointed with their investments in this sector; however, we think now is the time to take a fresh look, as this technology matures and evolves beyond Bitcoin across multiple applications such as: sharing economy, data security, logistics, and of course, banking and finance.
8. Boldly Going Where No Company Has Gone Before: SpaceTech
8. Boldly Going Where No Company Has Gone Before: SpaceTech
We are thrilled to see that a sector dominated by governments and states is now opening up to private ventures. NSLComm is inspiring entrepreneurs to aim high. We now see prestigious VC funds building space portfolios and enabling these ventures to take off.
In term of funding needs, what used to be super-expensive is becoming much more affordable, with standardization of hardware protocols as well as general cost reductions of consumer electronics. Satellites can now be built and launched for less than half a million dollars, creating exciting opportunities to commercialize the technology.
9. Cybersecurity for Critical Infrastructure Becomes Critical
9. Cybersecurity for Critical Infrastructure Becomes Critical
Are you worried about your car getting hacked? How about cyber criminals sneaking in through your air conditioner or refrigerator? Well we are too! Cybersecurity is not new; and in fact, the investing landscape is quite crowded, and the playing field is highly competitive.
But we believe the key shift for investing in the next few years will be a move from protecting IT infrastructure to protecting all infrastructure. We are excited about companies that are designing full-proof solutions to protect everything from automobiles to electric grids and everything in between.
10. Autonomous Driving Picks Up Speed
10. Autonomous Driving Picks Up Speed
Did you really think we were going to finish this top-10 list without mentioning the most overhyped tech trend? We all know that autonomous driving is coming, but the question is when? Should we still pay for our kids to get drivers licenses?
Thanks to core technology expertise and industry-leading companies such as Waze and Mobileye, Israel has become a global hub of automotive innovation. Now that we have a direct flight to Boston and Silicon Valley; our #1 prediction is that the next one will be direct to Detroit.
Wednesday, February 15, 2017
Two State Solution will no longer be forced upon Zion at least in the 8 years of #OyVeyDonaldTrump's Presidency and or until he is impeached . Unlikely as long as the GOP contriols both the Senate and The House.
Trump Administration Will Not Insist on Two-State Solution in Middle East, White House Official
Breaking with decades of U.S. foreign policy, the Trump administration will not insist on a two-state solution for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict when President Donald Trump hosts Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday.
Senior White House officials signaled the shift in a briefing to reporters late Tuesday in advance of the summit — the two leaders' first in-person meeting since Trump took office.
"Maybe, maybe not," one official said of the two-state solution. "It's something the two sides have to agree to. It's not for us to impose that vision. But I think we'll find out more about that tomorrow ."
The official emphasized that Trump seeks to bring peace to the turbulent region, even as he has promised a far closer relationship with Netanyahu and Israel under his presidency. Netanyahu and former President Barack Obama repeatedly clashed, and in one of his final acts in office, Obama declined to veto a UN Security Council resolution condemning Israel's expansion of settlements in West Bank areas claimed by Palestinians as part of a future state.
"A two-state solution that doesn't bring peace is not a goal that anybody wants to achieve," the official said. "Peace is the goal, whether it comes in the form of a two-state solution if that's what the parties want or something else, if that's what the parties want, we're going to help them."
The two-state solution has been a central aim of American foreign policy in the region for decades, and was embraced by both the Israeli government and the Palestinian Authority. But in recent years it has appeared to be an ever-fleeting dream, amid demographic changes, settlement expansion, security concerns, and eroding trust between the two parties.
The official said that the prospect of a future meeting between the Israeli government and Palestinian Authority leaders would be on the agenda for Trump's meeting with Netanyahu. "He's hopeful to bring the two sides together to discuss peace," the official said of Trump, adding the issue of Middle East peace is a "very high priority" for the new administration.
Trump and Netanyahu will host a joint press conference in the East Room of the White House Wednesday, before holding a bilateral meeting and a working lunch. The official said the administration hopes the visit will "usher in a new relationship between Israel and the United States — something that Israel has not seen in well over eight years, a relationship that will show there is no daylight, that we are fully cognizant of the situation that Israel finds itself in."
The official said that under the Trump administration, "The posture that the U.S. takes at the UN under this administration would be to veto anything that is biased against Israel."
The official added that the settlement issue will be also be on the agenda for the meeting. Earlier this month, White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer said in a statement that the White House did not believe the construction of new settlements or the expansion of existing settlements beyond their current borders would be "helpful" in achieving a lasting peace accord. The statement followed a day after the Israeli government approved an entirely new settlement construction in the West Bank.
Iran, its status as a state sponsor of terror, and its nuclear program, would be a crucial part of the discussion, the official said. Netanyahu was outspoken in his opposition to the Iran nuclear agreement under the Obama administration, though Trump has pledged to rigorously enforce the agreement, rather than abrogate it. Officials maintain that the agreement has rolled-back the "breakout" time for Iran to build a functioning nuclear weapon from a matter of months to a year.
Also on tap for the meeting will be a discussion of moving the U.S. Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem — long a goal for Netanyahu and many pro-Israel Americans. While Trump repeatedly pledged support for the move as a candidate and during the presidential transition — and even considered ordering it moved immediately after he took office on Jan. 20 — the White House put the brakes on the effort after Trump was briefed by his aides and amid pressure from Arab allies in the region.
"We are at the early stages of this decision-making process," Spicer told reporters on Jan 23. When pressed if he could commit that at the end of Trump's first term that the embassy would be moved, Spicer replied, "If it was already a decision, we wouldn't be going through a process."
Trump follows both Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush in publicly expressing support for the embassy move during the campaign, before delaying it at the behest of national-security leaders and Middle East experts as detrimental to the peace process.
During his confirmation hearing in January, Secretary of Defense James Mattis told Senators he believes Tel Aviv is the capital of Israel and deferred to the Secretary of State on whether it should be moved. "The capital of Israel that I go to, sir, is Tel Aviv, sir, because that’s where all their government people are," he testified. The issue did not come up during the confirmation hearings for Trump's nominee to head the State Department, Rex Tillerson.
Trump faces a June 1 deadline to weigh in formally on the subject when the final six-month Obama waiver of the Jerusalem Embassy Act expires
Breaking with decades of U.S. foreign policy, the Trump administration will not insist on a two-state solution for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict when President Donald Trump hosts Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday.
Senior White House officials signaled the shift in a briefing to reporters late Tuesday in advance of the summit — the two leaders' first in-person meeting since Trump took office.
"Maybe, maybe not," one official said of the two-state solution. "It's something the two sides have to agree to. It's not for us to impose that vision. But I think we'll find out more about that tomorrow ."
The official emphasized that Trump seeks to bring peace to the turbulent region, even as he has promised a far closer relationship with Netanyahu and Israel under his presidency. Netanyahu and former President Barack Obama repeatedly clashed, and in one of his final acts in office, Obama declined to veto a UN Security Council resolution condemning Israel's expansion of settlements in West Bank areas claimed by Palestinians as part of a future state.
"A two-state solution that doesn't bring peace is not a goal that anybody wants to achieve," the official said. "Peace is the goal, whether it comes in the form of a two-state solution if that's what the parties want or something else, if that's what the parties want, we're going to help them."
The two-state solution has been a central aim of American foreign policy in the region for decades, and was embraced by both the Israeli government and the Palestinian Authority. But in recent years it has appeared to be an ever-fleeting dream, amid demographic changes, settlement expansion, security concerns, and eroding trust between the two parties.
The official said that the prospect of a future meeting between the Israeli government and Palestinian Authority leaders would be on the agenda for Trump's meeting with Netanyahu. "He's hopeful to bring the two sides together to discuss peace," the official said of Trump, adding the issue of Middle East peace is a "very high priority" for the new administration.
Trump and Netanyahu will host a joint press conference in the East Room of the White House Wednesday, before holding a bilateral meeting and a working lunch. The official said the administration hopes the visit will "usher in a new relationship between Israel and the United States — something that Israel has not seen in well over eight years, a relationship that will show there is no daylight, that we are fully cognizant of the situation that Israel finds itself in."
The official said that under the Trump administration, "The posture that the U.S. takes at the UN under this administration would be to veto anything that is biased against Israel."
The official added that the settlement issue will be also be on the agenda for the meeting. Earlier this month, White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer said in a statement that the White House did not believe the construction of new settlements or the expansion of existing settlements beyond their current borders would be "helpful" in achieving a lasting peace accord. The statement followed a day after the Israeli government approved an entirely new settlement construction in the West Bank.
Iran, its status as a state sponsor of terror, and its nuclear program, would be a crucial part of the discussion, the official said. Netanyahu was outspoken in his opposition to the Iran nuclear agreement under the Obama administration, though Trump has pledged to rigorously enforce the agreement, rather than abrogate it. Officials maintain that the agreement has rolled-back the "breakout" time for Iran to build a functioning nuclear weapon from a matter of months to a year.
Also on tap for the meeting will be a discussion of moving the U.S. Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem — long a goal for Netanyahu and many pro-Israel Americans. While Trump repeatedly pledged support for the move as a candidate and during the presidential transition — and even considered ordering it moved immediately after he took office on Jan. 20 — the White House put the brakes on the effort after Trump was briefed by his aides and amid pressure from Arab allies in the region.
"We are at the early stages of this decision-making process," Spicer told reporters on Jan 23. When pressed if he could commit that at the end of Trump's first term that the embassy would be moved, Spicer replied, "If it was already a decision, we wouldn't be going through a process."
Trump follows both Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush in publicly expressing support for the embassy move during the campaign, before delaying it at the behest of national-security leaders and Middle East experts as detrimental to the peace process.
During his confirmation hearing in January, Secretary of Defense James Mattis told Senators he believes Tel Aviv is the capital of Israel and deferred to the Secretary of State on whether it should be moved. "The capital of Israel that I go to, sir, is Tel Aviv, sir, because that’s where all their government people are," he testified. The issue did not come up during the confirmation hearings for Trump's nominee to head the State Department, Rex Tillerson.
Trump faces a June 1 deadline to weigh in formally on the subject when the final six-month Obama waiver of the Jerusalem Embassy Act expires
Iran Missiles Test and Nuclear deal .. #OyVeyDonaldTrump's agressive pugnacity is difficult to turn into action unless he back tracks from #RIPPaxAmerica ....that the USA is no longer the policeman of the world
Donald Trump’s bellicosity on Iran is tricky to turn into action
The assembly with Netanyahu will put the main target on the president’s Mideast coverage
Before the election: Donald Trump meets Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, in New York
As Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, arrives on the White House at present for his first assembly with Donald Trump since he grew to become US president, the connection between the 2 males is not as clear because it appeared even final week. On the marketing campaign path, Mr Trump vowed he could be the “most pro-Israel president ever”.
Upon taking workplace, nevertheless, he has maintained Twitter silence on his pledge to transfer the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and began equivocating concerning the tempo of Jewish settlement-building on Arab land, saying this “may not be helpful”.
“Every time you take land for settlements, there is less land left”, the property mogul helpfully noticed. Early this month, King Abdullah of Jordan is believed to have spelt out to Mr Trump that Israel’s new settlement binge, alongside a US showing to foreclose on the standing of Jerusalem — the place Jordan is enshrined by treaty because the guardian of Islamic holy websites — would additional destabilise the area and encourage extremists.
The far proper within the Israeli cupboard believes that Mr Trump’s election presents a possibility to annex a lot of the occupied West Bank and finish the worldwide narrative encouraging a Palestinian state. Mr Netanyahu’s place zigzags between specious reasoning and slippery irredentism. There are those that consider Mr Trump’s unwonted warning on Israel is a tactic to give Mr Netanyahu US cowl on his uncovered proper flank at home. Others suppose the president is seduced by the thought of the “ultimate deal” — not simply between Israel and the Palestinians however Arab allies akin to Saudi Arabia.
All this is up for dialogue. Much of it’s going to keep up . . . within the air. The meat of this assembly, in the meantime, can be Iran and its allies, akin to Hizbollah, the Lebanese Shia Islamist paramilitaries Israel has been combating for 35 years.
Insofar as something is clear about Mr Trump’s Middle East insurance policies it is that he’ll need to work with Israel and Russia to limit and possibly roll again Iran’s rising affect within the area. This intersects with Israel’s concern far more than it does with Vladimir Putin’s Russia, which alongside Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, Hizbollah and Iraqi Shia militias, has salvaged Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria.
It is laborious to overstate the antagonism of workforce Trump in the direction of Iran — even when it has simply misplaced Michael Flynn, the shortlived however fanatical national safety adviser,. Candidate Trump known as final yr’s nuclear curbs deal between Iran and the worldwide group — the jewel of former President Barack Obama’s international coverage — “one of the worst deals ever”, and vowed to eviscerate it.
His administration has simply added to sanctions on Iran for what it sees as provocative current exams of ballistic missiles. Yet, though President Trump began out as ultra-bellicose on Iran, he might finish being constrained by intractable info. He might properly come to realise that militarily there are limits to what he can do, at the least with out pouring gasoline on to a area on hearth. While clearly the US has levers, he might discover tightening the sanctions screws unexciting, since they won’t considerably loosen Iran’s regional grip. He might, in different phrases, hint an identical arc to Israel, which lengthy excited hypothesis that it would bomb Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.
And that would lead him to the place Israel is now: its focus firmly on Hizbollah.
During its final, 34-day battle with Israel in 2006, the Lebanese paramilitaries held it to a draw. But after 5 years combating in Syria, Hizbollah has develop into a formidable Arab military, blooded, assured and bristling with a extra lethal arsenal of missiles. Always current on Israel’s northern border with Lebanon, Israel is on alert to Hizbollah bringing Iran shut to its border with Syria, the place till this civil battle the Assad regime had ensured not a shot had been fired for 40 years.
In the previous 10 weeks, Israel has carried out at the least 5 missile or air strikes inside Syria towards alleged convoys and stockpiles of weapons meant for Hizbollah, together with of “game-changing” Russian-made surface-to-air missiles that might dispute Israel’s mastery of the skies. The subsequent battle with Hizbollah is mentioned as a given.
The Institute for National Security Studies, Israel’s high think-tank, final month described Hizbollah as “currently the gravest military threat to Israel”, forward of its sponsor Iran. While Tehran declares its personal and its allies’ defiance, the temptation for the Trump administration ultimately to approve of an Israeli marketing campaign towards Hizbollah is seemingly to develop. Part of Hizbollah’s operate as a proxy is that it serves as the subsequent neatest thing to attacking Iran straight.
Tuesday, February 14, 2017
#OyVeyDonaldTrumps shift to traditional Pax Americana in the Middle East and its benefits for Israel and Zion
How Trump's shift to traditional US stance on Mideast aids Netanyahu
The Israeli prime minister meets President Trump in Washington Wednesday. The Trump administration had early indicated it might relax US constraints on Israel, but has since changed its tone.
As he prepares to meet President Trump Wednesday to reset US-Israeli relations after years of rancor with the Obama administration, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is treading a cautious path.
Pressed by the right flank of his government to drop his declared commitment to the two-state solution to the conflict with the Palestinians, expand Israeli settlements in the West Bank, and even annex parts of the territory, the prime minister has warned that not all restraints imposed during the Obama years can be thrown off.
Strengthening the alliance with the United States "requires a responsible and considered policy," Mr. Netanyahu said before leaving Israel for Washington. "I have navigated Israeli-US relations in a prudent manner and I will continue to do so now."
The note of caution coincided with a recalibration of statements from the Trump administration on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, bringing them more in line with traditional American positions after earlier indications from the Trump campaign that there would be a relaxing of US constraints on Israel.
Departing from campaign statements that he would move the United States Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and that Israeli settlements did not constitute an obstacle to peace, Mr. Trump told an Israeli newspaper, Israel Hayom, last week that he did not believe further settlement construction was "a good thing for peace,” and that "every time you take land for settlements there is less land left" for a Palestinian state in a future peace deal. He urged Israel to "be reasonable with respect to peace."
An earlier White House statement said that while settlements were not an impediment to peace, building new settlements or expansion of existing settlements "may not be helpful in achieving that goal."
Analysts say the revised signals from the Trump administration are not necessarily unwelcome to Mr. Netanyahu, who is reluctant to embark on policies that could cause a strong international backlash or test relations with a new president who has expressed his desire to broker the "ultimate deal" between Israel and the Palestinians.
In comments leaked to Israeli media from a cabinet meeting Sunday, Netanyahu told ministers that every effort should be made to avoid confrontation with Trump over the Palestinian issue, and that he planned to affirm his commitment to the two-state solution.
"Netanyahu is basically someone who is extremely risk-averse and wants to preserve stability at all costs," says Nathan Thrall, a Jerusalem-based senior analyst with the International Crisis Group. "For Trump to hold the traditional American view that Israel ought to exhibit restraint is useful to him."
Such positions could help Netanyau push back against rightist rivals like Education Minister Naftali Bennett, leader of the pro-settlement Jewish Home party, who warned before Netanyahu's departure that the words "Palestinian state" should not be uttered at the Washington meeting, and that if they were, "the earth will shake."
Preserving the status quo
To appease his right flank, Netanyahu has recently announced approval of the construction of some 6,000 homes in Israeli settlements in the West Bank and in East Jerusalem, and even said he would build a new settlement to compensate dozens of families evicted from an unauthorized settlement outpost, Amona, earlier this month.
But despite those moves, Netanyahu prefers a policy of "not rocking the boat and basically preserving the status quo," Mr. Thrall says, "neither pursuing the policies urged by the right or a making a grand deal for a two-state solution."
Netanyahu has so far resisted calls from rightist ministers to annex Ma'aleh Adumim, a large West Bank settlement near Jerusalem, as a first step to annexation of other swaths of territory where large settlements are located.
Trump's campaign promise of moving the US Embassy to Jerusalem has also drawn a tepid response from Netanyahu. After avoiding public comment on the subject for months, Netanyahu said recently that the embassy ought to be in Jerusalem, but he did not urge Trump to promptly follow through on his pledge.
Israeli security officials have warned that violent Palestinian unrest could be triggered by an embassy move, and Arab leaders have also expressed concern, prompting Trump to delay action on the issue.
Netanyahu's worry about increased violence on his watch is compounded by his vulnerability in public opinion following a deepening Israeli police probe into his suspected receipt of illicit gifts from wealthy benefactors.
Reviving a Bush commitment
Analysts said Netanyahu could try to reach a middle-of-the-road understanding with Trump that would sanction building inside large Israeli settlement blocs in the West Bank while halting construction outside them.
"If there will be an understanding in principle that building can go on in areas that are more or less accepted as a future part of Israel, but no wild settlement spree that could foreclose any possibility for a solution – for Netanyahu that would be a pretty good result," says Yehuda Ben Meir, a research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv.
Dennis Ross, a former US peace mediator, says one formula could be the resurrection of a 2004 commitment given by former president George W. Bush to the late Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon that any future border would take into account the large Israeli settlements in the West Bank.
An agreement on building only inside those blocs would "help the prime minister with the pressure that he is under from Jewish Home and from some of the right-wing ministers in his own party," Ross says.
Quo Vadis J Street in the #OyVeyDonaldTrump Era. An 8 year Sabbatical fom Academic Fantasy begins or will its true Trojan cause come to the fore ..... Anti Zionism and Pro BDS and Strong -Arming Israel with no purpose except spite..
J Street's Dead End
J Street proved to be a woefully inadequate ally in the Obama administration's efforts to strong-arm Israel.
At the end of 2017, the far-left Jewish advocacy group J Street will celebrate its 10th anniversary. At its inception, J Street promised to be the first political movement "to explicitly promote American leadership to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict." However, the organization's pursuit of this goal was an abject and damning failure.
Circumstances couldn't have been more amenable toward J Street's lofty goal. Within 14 months of J Street's inception, Barack Obama swept to power in elections that also left both houses of Congress controlled by Democrats.
As president, Obama's approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict was groundbreaking in many ways, deviating from the positions and tone of his predecessors, both Republican and Democrat. J Street backed this shift with political cover, campaign donations, and organizational unanimity, providing a convenient panacea to American Jewish community outrage over Obama's maneuvers.
The fledgling J Street found itself at the top table with veteran Jewish and pro-Israel organizations at the White House, with almost unprecedented access during Obama's two terms.
J Street touted itself as a vital part of the Obama administration's Israeli-Palestinian policy.
It wasn't merely a spectator: J Street saw itself as a vital part of the administration's strategy and policy on Israel and the peace process. It prided itself on the puppeteer role it played in defending the White House or pushing its policy platform.
"We were the blocking-back, clearing space for the quarterback to do what we wanted him to do," said J Street's president, Jeremy Ben-Ami, in 2011. He added, Obama "hasn't been able to push as aggressively as we would like," and J Street has "switched from being out front and clearing the way, to pushing him to do something more."
Something more turned out to be a lot less.
During the full eight years of the Obama administration, which set as one of its foreign policy goals a peaceful resolution to the Israel-Palestinian conflict, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas never sat in the same room for more than a few hours in total.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas sat in the same room for no more than a few hours during the entire Obama presidency.
While Netanyahu constantly repeated that he was willing to meet with the Palestinian leader at any place at any time, with no preconditions, Abbas made a series of impossible preconditions that pushed meaningful negotiations further and further away. J Street ended upblaming Netanyahu for Abbas's intransigence.
Mutual distrust between the parties may not have been greater in a generation, and it could be argued that peace is as far away as it has been since the Oslo Peace Process began. J Street's continued criticism of the Israeli government created a pseudo-Zionist political shield on the Jewish community's left flank that the Obama administration used to blame Israel for actions largely caused by Palestinian obstinacy.
For eight years J Street supported Obama's destructive policies toward Israel like theunilateral settlement freeze, nuclear détente with Iran, and his allowance for international condemnation of Israeli communities in the West Bank.
As a group that prided itself on its ability to make its voice heard in the American administration's halls of power, J Street's inability to influence must take a very heavy responsibility for the remission of the peace process.
Moreover, in its unrelenting vision of itself as chartering new territory, it lost many ideological allies.
At the end of 2008, when Israel decided to defend itself against incessant rocket attacks from the terrorist organization Hamas in the Gaza Strip, J Streetattacked Israel's defensive actions. Rabbi Eric Yoffie, president emeritus of the Union for Reform Judaism, called J Street's reaction to Israeli policy "morally deficient, profoundly out of touch with Jewish sentiment and also appallingly naïve."
In 2009, J Street initially tried to facilitate meetings between Richard Goldstone, lead author of a slanderous report on Israel's war on terror in Gaza, and members of Congress.
In 2011, when it appeared to advocate for the U.S. not to veto a deeply problematic UN resolution condemning Israel, supporters like Democratic Congressman Gary Ackerman of New York cut ties with the organization.
J Street also placed itself out of mainstream pro-Israel circles when it invited prominent activists in the Boycott, Divestment, Sanctions (BDS) movement to its conferences and claimed that George Soros had not funded the organization until it became a matter of public record that he had in fact provided significant donations, especially during its formative years.
All of these hits have left the reputations of J Street and its combative president battered and bruised.
However, the latest election results have delivered the knock-out punch.
J Street has come to be vilified by former friends and distanced from the Left in Israel.
If perhaps the only selling point J Street could offer its potential donors in recent years has been largely unfettered (if squandered and ineffective) access to the White House, this will now be completely removed from the equation by the victory of Donald Trump and continued Republican control of both houses of Congress.
J Street has now become an organization vilified by former friends, distanced from the Left in Israel, and distrusted by many more. It may reconstitute itself in some constellation or another, but its heyday has past.
#OyVeyDonaldTrumps Threefold Challange Against Iran
The Trump administration has commenced with a tempest of policy implementation of promises made during the election campaign in areas of policy such as immigration, trade, health care, the Supreme Court, and many others. They mostly related to domestic policy and the American economy. Regarding the Middle East, the administration has adopted a different style of rhetoric from that of the previous administration. Nevertheless, there is no strong evidence for a new regional policy: whether in relation to Iran and the nuclear deal, the humanitarian catastrophe in Syria, or the issue of intensifying the war against ISIS and all forms of radical Islam. When shaping its Middle East policy in general and its policy on Iran in particular, the new administration will need to come to terms with major tensions within its policy targets—declared and undeclared—vis-à-vis Iran (regarding nuclear issues, regional influence, terror and subversion, long-range missile development, cyber warfare, and soft power) and other rivals (ISIS, Russia, China, North Korea). All of this must be dealt with under the guiding principle of “America first.”
The Trump administration has commenced with a tempest of policy implementation of promises made during the election campaign in areas of policy such as immigration, trade, health care, the Supreme Court, and many others. They mostly related to domestic policy and the American economy. Regarding the Middle East, the administration has adopted a different style of rhetoric from that of the previous administration. Nevertheless, there is no strong evidence for a new regional policy: whether in relation to Iran and the nuclear deal, the humanitarian catastrophe in Syria, or the issue of intensifying the war against ISIS and all forms of radical Islam. When shaping its Middle East policy in general and its policy on Iran in particular, the new administration will need to come to terms with major tensions within its policy targets—declared and undeclared—vis-à-vis Iran (regarding nuclear issues, regional influence, terror and subversion, long-range missile development, cyber warfare, and soft power) and other rivals (ISIS, Russia, China, North Korea). All of this must be dealt with under the guiding principle of “America first.”
This article expounds upon the proposed American policy vis-à-vis Iran, and the inputs that Israel can contribute to shaping this policy.
US National Security Adviser Mike Flynn speaks during the daily press briefing at the White House in Washington, DC, on February 1, 2017. NICHOLAS KAMM / AFP
The second front pitting the Trump administration against Tehran appeared in the headlines this month thanks to a failed Iranian test of a North Korean-model ballistic missile, capable of carrying a nuclear warhead some 4000 kilometers. Although the United States and Germany declared that the test launch violated UN Security Council resolution 2231, this resolution does not unequivocally prohibit Iran from performing such a test, but “calls” for it not to carry out tests of ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear weaponry. Just as with the nuclear issue, Iran is not violating the resolution, but challenging it in practice and testing American willingness to respond. Furthermore, it has been reported that Iran tested a cruise missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. This action also does not violate the Security Council resolution, which does not relate to cruise missiles, but only ballistic missile tests.
The third front where Washington faces Tehran is in the non-nuclear realm. Iran works to expand its regional power against its main enemies—Israel and Saudi Arabia—by establishing militias and military proxies, as well as by providing Iranian weaponry and support to terror organizations. Against Israel, Tehran continues to support Hezbollah and supply it with advanced weapons, with the aim of enhancing its ability to threaten Israel. Iran also solidifies its power in Syria and Lebanon, including through ethnic cleansing of Sunni areas and settlement of Shiite populations in their stead, creating zones of Iranian influence. This is all undertaken while strengthening the alliance with Assad and Hezbollah.
Iran supports the Houthi rebel organizations fighting US allies in Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Iran deals in subversion, destabilization, and terror among Shiite populations in the Gulf states, with a focus on northeastern Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. In the last few months, the conflict has even spread from land to sea: reports were published this week that Houthi forces attacked a Saudi ship in the Red Sea, killing two seamen. This follows the October 2016 attack by Houthi forces on a UAE ship, and the unsuccessful attempt to attack an American destroyer with Iranian surface-to-ship missiles. Generally, these attacks have been directed against US allies, not against American forces. On this front, too, Iran does not directly defy Washington, but aids the fight against its allies in an attempt to undermine the strength of the American-Sunni alliance in the Middle East.
From Iran’s perspective, this is merely a continuation of the cautious strategy of “testing boundaries” that was applied against the previous American administration. The Obama administration was determined to reach a deal with Iran regarding its nuclear program. For this purpose, it was willing to compromise on American interests and the interests of American allies while avoiding a significant escalation with Iran that could have endangered the administration’s diplomatic achievement in the nuclear issue. The assumption of the previous administration was that the alternative to an agreement was regional war, and that an agreement should be reached, even a non-optimal one, which should then be diligently implied.
Furthermore, it appears that Iran’s own self confidence has grown stronger due to Russian support and the increased cooperation between Tehran and Moscow since the signing of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Russia took advantage of the American passivity in Iraq and Syria in order to reassert its hold over the Middle East, finding a partner for this in Iran. Although this is not a strategic alliance, and there is mutual suspicion between Iran and Russia, both have made sure to successfully coordinate their actions in Syria, and to promote further common interests in preserving the Assad regime, expanding the supply of advanced Russian weaponry to Iran, and collaborating in the field of civil nuclear power.
In response to the ballistic missile test conducted by Iran, the Trump administration announced sanctions against Iranian organizations and persons connected with terror activities and the Iranian missile program. In addition, an American battleship was sent to the Bab el-Mandeb region to secure trade routes against Houthi rebels in Yemen, who are supported by Tehran. The objective of the American response, as stated by President Trump, was to refuse to show restraint in the face of problematic Iranian conduct and to deter the Iranian regime from continuing its wayward regional policy. Nevertheless, the statement by Defense Secretary James Mattis that he is not considering to increase American forces in the region shows that the new administration has yet to fully formulate a strategy that will significantly change the strategic reality vis-à-vis Iran as shaped by the Obama administration. Thus, the challenge facing the new American administration is, on the one hand, to block Iran on all the fronts where it is challenging the United States, while on the other hand to avoid escalation at an undesirable time.
The change in American rhetoric—as expressed in the statement of General Michael Flynn that Iran is “on notice,” and as reinforced by President Trump’s statement that Iran is “playing with fire”—was necessary to make clear to Iran that the rules of the game have changed. But words must be backed up by equivalent deeds that display the same level of force. The Trump administration should restore the credibility of American policies and declarations in order to deter Iran from taking negative policy steps, while strengthening Middle East stability and protecting the interests of the United States and its allies in the region.
In order to formulate a different policy on Iran, the Trump administration must confirm the following basic assumptions: a) rejection of the Obama administration’s assumption that there is no alternative to an agreement; this assumption paralyzed the previous administration. The new administration should start with an assumption that the alternative to an agreement is not necessarily war; b) the alternative to the existing agreement, should Iran pull out of it, is the restoration of significant sanctions and a credible military option. If Iran should move to nuclear breakout, the response should be a surgical military strike only against nuclear facilities and containment of the incident. Against a strong and determined administration, the possibility of escalation should scare Iran rather than the United States.
Based upon these decisions, it would be appropriate to define a strategy for two main time frames: the short-medium term, and the long term. In the short and medium terms, the Trump administration should work with other world powers to form a consensus regarding which actions by Iran would be considered a violation of the nuclear agreement. Even without Russian or Chinese agreement, the United States and its European allies should agree on interpretation and coordinate a response for the “gray area” violations. It should be clear that the United States, United Kingdom, France and Germany are committed to the agreement solely in accordance with a strict interpretation.
In parallel, Washington should push for a new Security Council resolution to replace Resolution 2231, which would unequivocally prohibit the test of Iranian ballistic and cruise missiles that can carry a nuclear warhead. Such actions would demonstrate—to both Iran and other world powers—American resolve to create new rules of the game.
Russia is a key country for implementation of this strategy. President Trump has stated that he intends to act in coordination with Russian president Vladimir Putin. In a future agreement between these leaders, it is essential to include a demand to weaken Iran’s hold in Syria, with a focus on Iranian deployment in southern Syria and the Golan Heights. Another important issue is the cessation of the supply of advanced Russian weaponry to Assad, and from him to Hezbollah rendering a direct threat against Israel.
Furthermore, the American administration should increase pressure on Iran’s alliances and relationships with terror organizations in the region, using counterterrorism and deterrence. This policy should include a joint intelligence effort of the United States and its regional allies, as well as Israel, along with the employment of targeted force aimed at stopping Iranian weapon deliveries by sea and air. Also in this arena, an aggressive policy against Iran’s system of alliances, and injury to the Quds Force, is necessary so that Tehran will understand that the Trump administration intends to deal with Iran and take risks not taken in the past by the United States.
The Trump administration seeks to make clear that it is not willing to permit provocative Iranian actions, but it is important to avoid uncontrolled escalation during the years when Iran is far from the nuclear threshold. The suggested strategy demonstrates that there is an alternative to an agreement, which will further regional stability while not lead to a regional war. For this purpose, it is important to avoid tactical and local responses, and to formulate a comprehensive strategy intended to weaken Iran.
Regarding the long-term, the American strategy should include preparatory plans with the aim of preserving the credibility of the American threat, even after some of the main restrictions on the Iranian nuclear program are removed, beginning at the end of the seventh year of the agreement. A major component of the strategy must be amending the agreement, which currently allows in the long term for Iran to become the legitimate, unrestricted owner of nuclear infrastructure. For this purpose, the US administration must create, together with its allies, deterrent and punishment mechanisms that will deter Iran from developing its nuclear program and approaching the nuclear threshold, and being a mere few months or weeks from a bomb. The enforcement mechanisms should also include the possibility—coordinated with the world powers that signed the agreement—of restoring a significant sanctions regime, which in the past led Iran to the negotiating table and to compromise.
The US administration should be ready for Iran to decide to withdraw from the agreement, or in the future to exploit the removal of restrictions as prescribed by the agreement and advance to nuclear weapons. Then, the ability to harm the Iranian economy’s financial and energy sectors and a credible threat of focused military force as a last resort to prevent a nuclear Iran will be a key to deter Iran. These deterrent mechanisms might be the only tools capable of preventing a nuclear Iran while also avoiding a large-scale regional military conflict.
For Israel, too, words must lead to deeds. Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has declared that he intends to make the Iranian issue the main priority in the talks he will be holding with President Trump. Iran and its proxies, especially Hezbollah, are the greatest strategic threat currently facing Israel. Since summer 2015 we have been recommending an American-Israeli “parallel agreement” for coping with the consequences of the JCPOA and Iran’s malignant activities. Today there is an additional Israeli interest in establishing a strong regional front under American leadership against the extensive Iranian activities in the region. Formation of such a front would be a crucial and meaningful achievement for the stability of the Middle East and containment of Iran.
The formation of this type of regional anti-Iranian alliance may obligate Israel to make significant adjustments in the Palestinian issue. If President Trump would be willing to pursue bilateral agreements with his allies and perhaps even work towards convening a regional coalition with the participation of the United States, the Sunni Gulf states, and Israel, it is imperative that the Israeli government initiate moves that would not foil these efforts. This would be the optimal way to advance the most important Israeli interests in the long term against Iran while advancing an Israeli-Palestinian settlement.
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